建信期货油脂日报-20251225

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract and view it as a rebound for now. The supply and demand fundamentals of forward contracts have little change, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high-frequency data in Malaysia shows that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline from December 1 - 20 widened, providing some support for the palm oil market. The market is also concerned about the development of biodiesel in Indonesia. The domestic soybean oil inventory declines seasonally, and the basis is strong, with strong support for the futures price at 7,800 - 8,000. Rapeseed oil is generally used as a short position in arbitrage, but the basis quote is firm due to continuous inventory reduction and concentrated cargo rights. The futures price rebounds due to excessive decline, but caution is needed regarding the unilateral upward height. In terms of arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the basis price of the third-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 530, and from February - March was OI2605 + 490. The basis price of the first-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 730, and from February - March was OI2601 + 690. The basis price of the first-grade soybean oil in the East China market had different values at different time periods. The palm oil quotes of traders in Dongguan were stable [7] - Operation Suggestions: Focus on the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract. For forward contracts, expect narrow fluctuations. In arbitrage, long palm oil and soybean oil and short rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20, 2025 decreased by 7.44% month-on-month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 2.12% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.75% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% month-on-month [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures, including the spot prices of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the price spreads of P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [11][13][16]