建信期货国债日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the sentiment in the bond market fluctuates greatly, facing many negative factors, but the inter - year capital market is expected to remain loose to support the long - end. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of shorting the long - end and going long on the short - end. In the long - run, as the bond market has been continuously adjusted, the current interest rate has returned to a reasonable price. There is room for easing next year, and the long - end futures varieties have significant room for a supplementary rise [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Condition: Rumors of a reserve requirement ratio cut spread but were quickly digested. The inter - year funds rose slightly, and the bond market fluctuated narrowly [8]. - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed within a narrow range, with the increase of long - end active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.837%, up 0.2bp [9]. - Funds Market: The inter - bank funds market was stable, while the non - bank inter - year funds increased. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index was stable, and the pressure eased in the afternoon. The overnight and 7 - day funds rates in the inter - bank deposit market dropped slightly, the 14 - day inter - year rate rose 2bp to 1.62%, and the non - bank funds increased. The central bank is likely to provide support, and the medium - and long - term funds are stable [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Credit Repair Policy: The central bank announced a one - time credit repair policy for personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single - amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan. It is "application - free" [13]. - Vanke's Debt: Vanke's 2 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it extended the grace period. A subsidiary's 2.62 - billion - yuan insurance debt investment plan was extended for one year [13][14]. - National Meeting: Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and emphasized major projects [14]. - Local Government Bonds: The issuance of local government bonds in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion yuan, with 500 billion yuan of the debt balance limit in the fourth quarter supporting debt resolution and investment [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: Data on trading, spreads, and trends of treasury bond futures contracts are presented, sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [6][15][16] - Money Market: Information on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR, etc., is provided, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][26][31] - Derivatives Market: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is given, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [35][36]