大越期货沥青期货早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The refineries have reduced production recently, alleviating supply pressure. The demand side is affected by the off - season, with overall demand falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is neutral, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2967 - 3025 [7][8]. - The positive factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support. The negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend of demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 487,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 955,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure may be reduced next week [7]. - Demand: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - Basis: On December 24, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 714,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%; the factory inventory is 594,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.55%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is neutral [8]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes above MA20. It is neutral [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [8]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the 2602 contract of asphalt will fluctuate in the range of 2967 - 3025 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2025, showing the price relationship between the spot and futures [19][20][21]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trend: It shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - Production Volume: It shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It presents the price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - 开工 Rate: It presents the weekly开工 rate trends of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [61][62]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - Import - Export Situation: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - Asphalt开工 Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工 Rate: It presents the historical开工 rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - Asphalt开工 Rate by Use: It shows the historical开工 rate trends of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - Downstream开工 Situation: It presents the historical开工 rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [107][108].