大越期货菜粕早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and will maintain the range - bound pattern [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the fluctuations. The spot premium has remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal of the 2605 contract has narrowed slightly [18][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is affected by soybean meal and is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market will maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the demand reduction suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the Sino - Canadian trade issue has affected the short - term export and reduced the domestic supply expectation [11]. - The preliminary anti - dumping investigation of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed has found it to be established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. The impact of the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed and the imposition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price data: From December 16th to 24th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2520 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - Inventory data: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, which is the same as last week and a 99.29% decrease compared to the same period last year. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [9][25]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish trend [9].