甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Views Methanol - Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonant rebound in ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, unloading is slow, and port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks. However, there are many floating storage tanks, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons. It is difficult to expect a decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports. It is believed that the end - point of the 01 contract will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1] Polyethylene (PE) - For polyethylene, the inventory of the top two oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The top two oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises have reduced their inventories, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around -200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [3] Polypropylene (PP) - For polypropylene, the top two oil companies and mid - stream enterprises have reduced their inventories. In terms of valuation, the basis is -60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around -700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around -400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the start - up rate of powder plants is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [3] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The basis of the 01 contract remains at -270, and the factory - pickup basis is -480. Downstream start - up rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production level in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is -100. Currently, the contradiction of static inventory is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3] 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price changed from 2168 to 2172, the South China spot price from 2120 to 2135, the Lunan converted - to - futures price from 2440 to 2395, the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2485, the Hebei converted - to - futures price remained at 2385, the Northwest converted - to - futures price from 2525 to 2470, the CFR China price from 251 to an unspecified value, the CFR Southeast Asia price from 318 to an unspecified value, and the import profit and other values also had corresponding changes [1] Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 745 (except for December 24 with no data). The North China LL price changed from 6390 to 6250, the East China LL price from 6725 to 6500, the East China LD price from 8125 to 7975, the East China HD price remained at 6850, the LL US dollar price remained at 763, the LL US Gulf price remained at 786, the import profit,主力期货 price, basis, two - oil inventory, and warehouse receipts also had corresponding changes. The overall inventory is neutral, and the 09 contract basis is different in different regions. The import profit is around -200, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently [3] Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price changed from 5930 to 5700, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 710, the East China PP price from 6210 to 6110, the North China PP price from 6073 to 6008, the Shandong powder price from 6020 to 6000, the East China copolymer PP price from 6426 to 6302, the PP US dollar price from 755 to an unspecified value, the PP US Gulf price remained at 800, the export profit,主力期货 price, basis, two - oil inventory, and warehouse receipts also had corresponding changes. The upstream and mid - stream inventories have decreased, the basis is -60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around -700. Exports have been good, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3] Polyvinyl Chloride - Price and Profit Data: From December 18 to December 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2300 (from December 23), the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 732, the calcium carbide method - East China price from 4470 to 4520, the import US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 640 (except for December 24 with no data), the export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, North China comprehensive profit, and basis also had corresponding changes. The basis remains stable, downstream start - up rates are weakening seasonally, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as exports and coal prices [3]