大越期货PVC期货早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Likely Positive Factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - Likely Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [11] - PVC2605 Forecast: PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4745 - 4817 [7] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Likely Positive Factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - Likely Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [11] - Main Risk Points: The implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.38%, a 0.03 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprises' production was 335,490 tons, a 2.40% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method enterprises' production was 140,960 tons, a 2.99% month - on - month decrease. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production [6] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 45.39%, a 3.5 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 31.43%, a 3.7 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 37.6%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 67.14%, a 6.79 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.36%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [6] - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 986.28 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 469.36 yuan/ton, with a 9.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2052.55 yuan/ton, with a 1.90% month - on - month increase in profit, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6] - Basis: On December 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 231 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [7] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 328,515 tons, a 4.58% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 245,315 tons, a 5.83% month - on - month decrease. Ethylene method factory inventory was 83,200 tons, a 0.71% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 510,600 tons, a 1.31% month - on - month decrease. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.3 days, a 2.75% month - on - month decrease. It is bearish [7] - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [7] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [7] - Expectation: The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Presents a table of yesterday's market overview, including various price indicators, month - to - month spreads, inventory data, operating rates, and profit indicators [13] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, along with the East China market price and the main contract closing price [16] - Price and Volume Trend: Shows the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the main PVC futures contract [19] - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: Displays the historical spread trends of different contracts, such as 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Lancoke: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke [25] - Calcium Carbide: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [28] - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: Analyzes the price, production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [31] - Caustic Soda: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and double - ton price difference trends of caustic soda [33][35] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - Analyzes the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, the profit trends of the two methods, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises [37][39] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) [42][45] - Analyzes the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin [47] - Analyzes real - estate investment completion, housing construction area, new housing starts, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [49] - Analyzes social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [51] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Analyzes the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [53] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, the FOB price difference of the ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and the import price difference of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [55] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [58]