原木期货日报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Recent log futures prices have recovered to near the warehouse receipt cost. The latest data shows a significant reduction in inventory on a week - on - week basis. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, there is an expectation of a decrease in future shipments. Meanwhile, demand remains stable but weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 24, the prices of log futures contracts (2601, 2603, 2605) all increased compared to December 23, with increases of 0.26%, 0.78%, and 0.38% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of some contracts decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2]. Supply - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6.01% compared to October. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 9.26%. From December 22 - 28, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 9, a decrease of 40% week - on - week, and the arrival volume was about 30.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 41% week - on - week [2][3]. Inventory - As of December 19, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 260 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41% compared to December 12. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3]. Demand - As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2% compared to December 12. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3].