大越期货原油早报-20251225

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 - Report Title: Crude Oil Morning Report - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View - Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, while medium - to long - term concerns about oversupply remain. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range, and long - term investors should wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - Fundamentals: The US will focus on "blockading" Venezuelan oil in the next two months. CPC pipeline oil transportation in December is expected to drop by one - third. Venezuelan state - owned oil company's inventory increases due to US ship seizures [3]. - Basis: On December 24, Oman crude spot price was $62.77/barrel, Qatar Marine crude spot price was $61.95/barrel, with a basis of 16.98 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels in the week ending December 19. US EIA inventory decreased by 1.274 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.742 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 3.464 million barrels as of December 24 [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the average [3]. - Main Position: As of December 9, WTI crude oil main position was long and increased; as of December 16, Brent crude oil main position was long and decreased [3]. - Expectation: During the Christmas holiday, the external market was closed. Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, but medium - to long - term oversupply concerns remain. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US will focus on economic sanctions against Venezuelan oil in the next two months. Venezuela may face an economic disaster by mid - January next year if it does not make concessions to the US [5]. - Russia will seek key revisions to the latest US - Ukraine peace plan for Ukraine, including more restrictions on Kiev's military capabilities [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: Not provided clearly. - Likely to Fall: Middle East situation eases [6]. - Driving Factors: Short - term waiting for geopolitical positive factors, medium - to long - term facing the risk of oversupply [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Brent crude oil settlement price rose from $61.58 to $61.87, an increase of 0.47%. WTI crude oil rose from $58.01 to $58.38, an increase of 0.64%. SC crude oil rose from 432.6 to 441.7, an increase of 2.10%. Oman crude oil rose from $60.16 to $61.47, an increase of 2.18% [8]. - Spot Market: UK Brent Dtd rose from $62.81 to $63.23, an increase of 0.67%. WTI was $0.00, a decrease of 100.00%. Oman crude oil rose from $61.75 to $62.33, an increase of 0.94%. Shengli crude oil rose from $56.59 to $57.92, an increase of 2.35%. Dubai crude oil rose from $61.57 to $62.22, an increase of 1.06% [10]. 3.5 Position Data - API Inventory: In the week ending December 19, it increased by 2.391 million barrels [3][11]. - EIA Inventory: In the week ending December 12, it decreased by 1.274 million barrels [3][14]. - WTI Net Long Position: As of December 9, it was 58,433, an increase of 7,396 [17]. - Brent Net Long Position: As of December 16, it was 32,940, a decrease of 74,876 [19].