《黑色》日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel price center has risen, rebar basis has weakened, and hot-rolled coil basis has remained stable. Steel maintains production cuts and inventory reduction. The inventory reduction is acceptable under the influence of production cuts, but the inventory structure is still differentiated. Rebar has a better inventory reduction and runs at a relatively low inventory level. After the production cut of hot-rolled coils, the inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Production cuts support steel prices, and with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices have rebounded from the low level, but the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Overall, it is judged to maintain a range-bound trend. It is expected that rebar will maintain a range of 3000 - 3200, and hot-rolled coils will maintain a range of 3150 - 3350. The 1 - 5 positive spread of rebar can continue to be held; the long position in the rebar - iron ore ratio arbitrage can be held [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fluctuated. In terms of news, Beijing introduced relevant policies to optimize and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing purchase qualifications and reducing the down - payment ratio for second - home purchases with provident fund loans. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis but still remained at a high level in the same period of history. The year - end production rush of the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the absolute value is at a high level in the same period of history. According to the shipment calculation, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. On the demand side, the molten iron production continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the overall level dropped to a relatively low level in history. According to SMM statistics, the blast furnace maintenance volume increased by 0.01 million tons week - on - week last week and will decrease by 2.99 million tons week - on - week next week. Steel mills may resume production, but the resumption strength is expected to be not strong. In terms of inventory, the inventory increased significantly on a week - on - week basis on Monday. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level, the port clearance volume will decline under production cuts, and iron ore will still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern, but the marginal inventory accumulation space will be less than before. The subsequent BHP negotiation result will determine when to address the high - inventory contradiction. Looking forward to the future, the key lies in the BHP negotiation, the molten iron trend, and the steel mill restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is difficult to lead to a trend - like decline, while the price is obviously suppressed by the high inventory above. As the steel mill production resumption increases, considering the limited downward space of molten iron and the raw material restocking demand, it is expected that the iron ore price may rebound slightly. Strategically, it is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range trading on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts landed on December 22, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance and is currently stable. On the supply side, the coal mine shipment has improved to some extent, the daily production has decreased slightly, the coal mine has accumulated inventory due to slow sales, and the coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuates with the futures. At the end of the year, the mines are rushing to ship. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, leading to more maintenance, the molten iron production has declined, and steel prices are fluctuating at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have accumulated inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has slightly decreased from a medium level, and the coke supply - demand has weakened. The coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the coking coal decline space. Strategically, after the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the expected - driven rebound is difficult to sustain. The long position in the coke 2605 contract should be closed for profit [5] Silicon Iron - Yesterday, the silicon iron futures fluctuated with a narrowing range. In terms of news, a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shenmu was shut down, reducing the daily production of 75 - silicon by 100 tons. A 45000kva silicon iron furnace in a Baotou enterprise was restarted, increasing the daily production of 72 - silicon by 120 tons. The production of a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shaanxi was affected, with a daily production reduction of 100 - 120 tons, and the production suspension time is to be determined. On the supply side, last week, the production reduction of silicon iron expanded, and the production increase was mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Qinghai. Manufacturers' losses continued to deepen, and they tried to ease the supply - demand contradiction through passive production cuts and conversions. The subsequent focus is on the supply change. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified, but the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking and ferroalloy production will maintain a contraction pattern. In terms of non - steel demand, the national iron and steel production will decline, but the downstream restocking will increase at the end of the month, yet the downstream's acceptance of high prices is poor. In terms of exports, there are many orders overseas, but the high - price acceptance is insufficient. In addition, the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea still has an impact. In terms of cost, the semi - coke price has slightly declined, and the low - cost power regions have a relative advantage. Looking forward to the future, the supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is still difficult to resolve, but the production reduction expectation has been partially priced in, and the subsequent demand improvement expectation is insufficient, so the price rebound lacks sustainability. The production reduction has already affected the price, and the cost side should focus on the coal price change. In the short term, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in a range, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700 [6] Silicon Manganese - Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures fluctuated. In terms of news, a high - silicon manganese plant in Inner Mongolia recently converted 2 ore - smelting furnaces to produce silicon manganese 6517, and the subsequent specific production situation depends on the actual production of the factory. On the supply side, the production in the main production areas has decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the production in the low - cost areas is relatively stable, and there is still a certain expectation of capacity reduction in the Inner Mongolia area recently. The southern main production areas maintain production cuts. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and although the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified to some extent, the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon manganese will maintain a contraction pattern. The steel mills' price - pressing sentiment is strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still remains at a high - level, and the insufficient production - cut strength results in a limited year - on - year and month - on - month inventory reduction. The supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is firm, and the quotes of some overseas mines for January have been raised. The electricity price is basically stable, and the short - term manganese ore inventory provides certain support for the cost. Overall, silicon manganese is in a situation where its own supply is in excess, but the overall situation is relatively balanced. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicon manganese price. The key in the future lies in the production - cut amplitude, the end - of - year winter restocking of steel mills, and the raw material restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has been priced in to some extent, and there is no clear signal of a significant rebound. It is expected that the subsequent price will still operate weakly, but the trend - like decline amplitude is limited. Strategically, it is advisable to consider shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, mainly for short - term trading [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 8 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton, 3180 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 4 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3229 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 3167 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 96 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production decreased by 2.4 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.1%. - The production of the five major steel products decreased by 8.3 tons to 798.0 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The rebar production increased by 2.9 tons to 181.7 tons, an increase of 1.6%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.8 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 6.3%, and the converter production increased by 1.2 tons to 152.4 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.8 tons to 291.9 tons, a decrease of 5.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 37.3 tons to 1294.8 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The rebar inventory decreased by 27.0 tons to 452.5 tons, a decrease of 5.6%. - The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.4 tons to 390.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 8.6, an increase of 7.9%. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 4.4 to 835.3, a decrease of 0.5%. - The apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.5 to 208.6, an increase of 2.7%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 13.7 to 298.3, a decrease of 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.9 yuan/ton, 846.8 yuan/ton, 843.1 yuan/ton, and 884.0 yuan/ton respectively. The PB fines and Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.1 yuan/ton and 2.2 yuan/ton respectively. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines decreased by 1.0 to 57.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. The 05 - contract basis of Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.2 to 63.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8% [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 5.7 tons to 313.5 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0% [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) compared with Monday increased by 130.2 tons to 15512.63 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 110.3 tons to 8724.0 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, an increase of 5.0% [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton. - The coke 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1599 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1047 yuan/ton. - The coke 05 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1746 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton to 1132 yuan/ton [5] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 46.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. - The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. - The clean coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 900.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8 tons to 91.1 tons, an increase of 4.3%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.6 tons to 633.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 1036.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.3 tons to 805.0 tons, an increase of 1.3%. - The port inventory decreased by 5.5 tons to 175.7 tons, a decrease of 3.14% [5] Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 8 yuan/ton to 5656 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased