瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high, and there is an expectation that inventory may rise after the end of the environmental protection warning. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Although agriculture is in the off - season for rigid demand, there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The start - up of compound fertilizers has decreased slightly this week, and the short - term enterprise device start - up rate may fluctuate slightly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1740 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 196,387 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22,506 lots; the exchange warehouse receipt is 10,750 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 318 lots [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1730, 1710, 1720, 1730, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0, 30, 10, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 350 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 390 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 13.8 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%; the daily output is 195,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons. The export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 39.37%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25%; the melamine start - up rate is 58.55%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.31%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers is 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4382,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,700 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the production of Chinese urea enterprises was 13.334 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 325,000 tons, or 2.38%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].