瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a phase of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a state of tight supply - demand balance. The long - term outlook is positive, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand. It is suggested to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 22,275 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 2,646 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of SHFE aluminum decreased by 6,450 hands to 290,474 hands; the main contract positions of alumina increased by 134,943 hands to 245,088 hands [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 73,225 tons; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,450 tons to 521,050 tons [2] - The SHFE aluminum net position of the top 20 decreased by 177 hands to - 12,420 hands; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased by 0.06 to 7.53 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 50 yuan to 21,980 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 105 yuan to 605 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 5 yuan to - 295 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 813.8 million tons, with a national monthly opening rate of 84.37% (down 0.92%) and a total capacity utilization rate of 86.51% (down 0.45%) [2] - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part increased by 25.92 million tons to 730.23 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 53.70 million tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum opening rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2] - Aluminum product production increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] - Automobile production increased by 240,000 vehicles to 3.519 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum increased by 0.10% to 13.00%; the 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 12.01% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 0.0284% to 15.75%; the call - put ratio of SHFE aluminum options decreased by 0.0021 to 1.64 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the stability of the capital market [2] - Ningbo Sbei Technology plans to expand an aluminum alloy die - casting production project in Thailand, with a total investment of 400 million yuan [2] - Chalco Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Institute signed a design contract for a 75,000 - ton/year electrolytic aluminum project with a Malaysian company [2] - Nanning Chantou Xinglv New Materials plans to build a high - precision battery aluminum foil and can lid pull - ring material project [2]