瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a stage of increasing supply and stable high - level demand, with continuous destocking of industrial inventory and a positive outlook. It is recommended to trade lightly with a slightly bullish and volatile strategy, while paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [2]. - The option market sentiment is bearish with a slightly rising implied volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 123,520 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 127,079 hands, up 6,244 hands; the position of the main contract is 607,187 hands, down 40,179 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,920 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 17,101 hands/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 102,250 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 18,620 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,365 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 13,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,773 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2]. - The price of manganese - acid lithium is 37,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 346,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 167,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 149,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 161,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 40,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1% [2]. - The monthly production volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 2.315 million vehicles, up 1.174 million vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 46.14%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 53.78%, up 0.22% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 108,159 contracts, down 2,613 contracts; the total put position is 193,653 contracts, up 13,066 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 179.04%, up 16.0189%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46%, up 0.0492% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd.'s lithium mine mining project in Yifeng County is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - Do - fluoride expects the supply - demand and price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to be optimistic next year. The company's existing production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 60,000 tons/year, and the expansion plan will be adjusted according to market demand. By the end of next year, the battery sector's production capacity is expected to reach 50 GWh, with a planned shipment of about 30 GWh [2]. - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost. It emphasized maintaining the stability of the capital market without mentioning the real estate market [2]. - Pan Technology plans to adjust the production capacity of the third - phase project of its "Large - scale Production Project of Cathode Materials for New Energy Vehicle Power and Energy Storage Batteries" from 62,500 tons/year to 100,000 tons/year [2].