沪铜产业日报-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and resilient demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly bullish range, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 96,210 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 12,133 dollars/ton, down 29.5 dollars [2] - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 247,747 lots, down 10,557 lots [2] - The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 41,742 lots, down 13,656 lots; LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, up 825 tons [2] - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 95,805 tons, up 6,416 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 48,875 tons, down 2,875 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,222 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 95,005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 53 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the CU main contract was - 1,450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was 19.69 dollars/ton, up 6.53 dollars [2] - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.65 dollars/kiloton, down 0.57 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 85,240 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 85,940 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The output of refined copper was 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 64,690 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan [2] 下游及应用 - The output of copper products was 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 48.2434 billion yuan, up 4.4627 billion yuan [2] - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 785.909 billion yuan, up 50.282 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.41%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 16.28%, down 0.22% [2] - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 26.37%, up 0.0597%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.11, down 0.1062 [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [2] - On December 24, 2025 (London local time), Jiangxi Copper made a formal offer to acquire all the issued and to - be - issued shares of SolGold plc, with a valuation of about 867 million pounds [2] - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost [2]