Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall accumulation rate expanding. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing are increasing, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventory and have low replenishment willingness, resulting in lower - than - expected overall outbound shipments. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises arrange production flexibly this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate rebounds slightly month - on - month, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate declines month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The enterprise's overall shipment rhythm is slow, the finished product inventory rises, and under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises have production suspension and limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 182,848 lots, up 15,218 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50,850 lots, down 824 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 46,523 lots, down 9,002 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 14,466 lots, down 2,748 lots. The exchange warehouse receipt of Shanghai rubber is 93,230 tons, up 1,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipt of 20 - number rubber is 57,960 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,780 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,730 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 550 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,906 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 219 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheet is 58.22 Thai baht/kg, down 0.03 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber film is 55.39 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.74%, up 2.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, up 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.08%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.08%, up 0.52 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of December 21 - 27, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in southern Thailand, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 5.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,000 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 796,000 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 4.356 million tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]. 4. Suggested Focus - The operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251225
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-25 10:28