瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 25, the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were strong while those of medium and long - term bonds were weak. Treasury futures declined across the board. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail in November, with fixed - asset investment in continuous negative growth and stable unemployment. The financial data was structurally differentiated, with an unexpected increase in social financing but weak credit. The CPI improved in November, and the PPI decline marginally expanded. Overseas, the US consumption was strong, and the market expected future interest rate cuts. Overall, the domestic economic internal momentum needs to be boosted. Next year's monetary policy will remain moderately loose, but the urgency of short - term interest rate cuts is not high. Future policy will focus on structural tools, and short - term interest rates are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Price: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为108.195、105.990、102.510、112.510，较昨日分别下跌0.02%、0.03%、0.02%、0.24% [2]. - Futures Trading Volume: T、TF、TS、TL主力成交量分别为56411、49022、30026、95007，较昨日分别减少12732、5686、增加3525、减少15756 [2]. - Futures Price Spread: Different spreads showed various trends, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread increasing by 0.00 to - 0.22, and the T2603 - 2606 spread decreasing by 0.02 to - 0.02 [2]. - Futures Position: T、TF、TS、TL主力持仓量分别为247563、156449、78241、143219，较昨日分别增加4062、1927、减少289、减少847. The net short positions of the top 20 in T、TF、TS、TL changed by - 203、666、 - 760、 - 1354 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Price and Yield Data - CTD Bond Net Price: Some CTD bonds' net prices declined, while a few increased, such as 250018.IB (6y) decreasing by 0.0285 to 100.517 and 250017.IB (2y) increasing by 0.0036 to 100.1542 [2]. - Active Treasury Bond Yield: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active treasury bonds decreased by 0.50bp and 0.75bp to 1.3350% and 1.3750% respectively. The 5 - year and 10 - year yields remained unchanged at 1.5800% and 1.8350% [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rate: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.80bp to 1.2480%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 18.68bp to 1.5668%. Some Shibor rates also changed [2]. - LPR Rate: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Policy and Market News - Central Bank Policy: The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, and maintaining stable capital markets without mentioning the real estate market. On December 25, the central bank carried out 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2][3]. - Real Estate Policy: Beijing optimized its housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the purchase conditions for non - Beijing households and adjusting mortgage policies for multi - child families [3].