铂钯金期货日报-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 529.05 yuan/gram (up 29.65 yuan), and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 686.95 yuan/gram (down 43.85 yuan) - The main contract holdings for platinum were 3,179.00 hands (down 277.00 hands), and for palladium were 10,387.00 hands (up 90.00 hands) [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 591.25 yuan/gram (down 15.74 yuan), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 417.00 yuan/gram (down 41.00 yuan) - The platinum main contract basis was - 95.70 yuan/gram (down 45.39 yuan), and the palladium main contract basis was - 112.05 yuan/gram (up 2.85 yuan) [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9,966.00 contracts (down 243.00 contracts), and the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3,003.00 contracts (down 342.00 contracts) - The total platinum supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80 tons), and the total palladium supply in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00 tons) - The total platinum demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60 tons), and the total palladium demand in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00 tons) [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.90 (down 0.36), the VIX volatility index was 14.00, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94% (up 0.00%) - The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%, with consumer spending being the main driver. The core PCE price index in the third quarter rose 2.9%. US core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded in October - US President Trump posted that he hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and markets perform well - Gold prices have risen more than 71% this year, and silver prices have risen about 147% - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 5.0% [2] Industry News - The platinum and palladium markets hit the daily limit for several consecutive trading days before. Today, their trends diverged. The platinum 2606 contract rebounded strongly after hitting a low in the morning, while the palladium 2606 contract was still under pressure after hitting the daily limit down - Tight physical inventory and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum recently. The London platinum lease rate continued to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continued to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction - The large domestic - foreign price difference has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up the spot price and amplifying the futures price elasticity - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new - energy vehicles, with the market shifting from short supply to oversupply. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]