瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, marginal supply increases. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price has been fluctuating recently. The market is watching China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a de - stocking mode, which supports the price. But with Australian rapeseed arriving for crushing and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, long - term supply pressure increases. The abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil at a basic level. Recently, the rapeseed oil price has been fluctuating at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 8981 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2352 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton (up 9.7 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5580 yuan/ton (up 101 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 39 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 53 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil had 197,238 lots (down 3 lots), rapeseed meal had 638,009 lots (up 7359 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 29,431 lots (down 3354 lots), rapeseed meal was - 39,444 lots (up 12,096 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3786 sheets (down 80 sheets), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2430 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8340 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8490 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 9678.75 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan) [2]. - Import cost: Imported rapeseed was 7519.9 yuan/ton (up 28.92 yuan) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 580 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was 78 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (up 170 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 1090 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), annual forecast for rapeseed was 13,446 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly imports were 0.2 million tons (up 0.2 million tons) [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 489 yuan/ton (down 43 yuan) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.1 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 0% (unchanged) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Imports: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons (down 2 million tons), rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons (up 6.29 million tons) [2]. - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 0.5 million tons (down 0.15 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal was 0 million tons (down 0.02 million tons), East China rapeseed oil was 29.8 million tons (down 2.4 million tons), East China rapeseed meal was 17.91 million tons (down 0.7 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil was 0.4 million tons (down 0.15 million tons), South China rapeseed meal was 24 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. - Weekly pick - up volumes: Rapeseed oil was 0.48 million tons (down 0.42 million tons), rapeseed meal was 0 million tons (unchanged) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: Monthly output was 2977.9 million tons (up 20.9 million tons) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: Monthly output was 427.6 million tons (down 67.4 million tons) [2]. - Catering revenue: Monthly retail sales were 6057 billion yuan (up 858 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 16.44% (down 0.1%), rapeseed oil was 14.35% (down 0.15%) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 16.44% (down 0.1%), rapeseed oil was 14.32% (down 0.2%) [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal was 11.87% (down 0.01%), rapeseed oil was 16.56% (up 1.05%) [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal was 10.92% (down 0.68%), rapeseed oil was 14.8% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 24, the ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by the rising CBOT soybean oil price. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract rose 11.30 Canadian dollars to 611.50 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil is expected to have a good soybean harvest. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global market. China has bought over 8 million tons of US soybeans and is moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2]. - The AAFC raised the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending inventory for 2025/26 by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, compared with 1.597 million tons in the previous year [2]. - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 20 days, and export data improved. However, Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota has raised concerns about the implementation of the B50 plan [2].