集运早报-20251224

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current valuation of the 02 contract is high, and future performance depends on spot market trends. Although the short - term sentiment is positive due to spot market improvement, it's difficult to predict the peak height and time of freight rates in January and subsequent price decline rhythms. It's not recommended to enter the market at the current level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, but it may follow the spot market or recover the basis in the short term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the near term [3]. - Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It's safer to short off - season contracts than peak - season contracts. Adopt a positive spread trading strategy overall and focus on short - selling opportunities in the 10 contract [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Contract Prices and Changes: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1606.0, 1806.6, 1158.0, 1331.7, 1480.0, and 1052.0 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.53%, - 3.48%, - 0.71 - 5% (might be a typo, assumed - 0.71%), 0.89%, - 0.42%, and - 0.85% [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 281, 41660, 7754, 372, 141, and 796 respectively. The open interests were 1890, 35004, 20867, 2187, 1199, and 5603 respectively, with changes of - 66, - 1506, 396, 3, 2, and 202 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: For example, the EC2512 - 2504 spread was 448.0, with a daily change of - 16.2 and a weekly change of - 52.1; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was - 200.6, with a daily change of 40.2 and a weekly change of - 104.4 [2]. Spot Market - SCFIS: Updated weekly on Mondays, the index on December 22, 2025, was 1589.20, up 5.21% from the previous period and 0.10% from the period before that [2]. - SCFI (Euro - Line): Updated on Fridays, the price on December 19, 2025, was 1533 dollars/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period and up 9.86% from the period before that [2]. - CCFI (Euro - Line): Updated on Fridays, the index on December 19, 2025, was 1473.9, up 0.23% from the previous period and 1.59% from the period before that [2]. - NCFI (Euro - Line): Updated weekly, the index on December 19, 2025, was 1067.29, up 0.30% from the previous period and 9.98% from the period before that [2]. Euro - Line Spot Situation - Week 52: MSK opened 2300 cabins (a decrease of 100 compared to the previous week), and other companies mainly followed Week 51. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. All shipping companies announced price increases for January cabins [4]. - Week 1: MSK opened cabins at 2500 US dollars (an increase of 200 compared to the previous week), and waiting for other shipping companies to open cabins [4]. - Week 2: MSK's prices were mainly flat, with a price of 2500 US dollars (2600 for high - cube containers) [4]. Related News - On December 23, the Suez Canal Authority reported that the French CMA CGM Jacques Saadé and Adonis passed through the canal. One was a return ship and the other was on a specific route with precedent [5].