广发早知道：汇总版-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Copper: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - PP: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - Coking Coal: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - Soybean Meal: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - Silver: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - News: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - Funding: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - Operation Suggestion: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - Funding: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - Market Review: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - Outlook: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - Index: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - Fundamentals: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - Logic: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - Alumina: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - Aluminum: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - Aluminum Alloy: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - Zinc: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - Tin: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - Nickel: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - Stainless Steel: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - Polysilicon: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - Steel: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - Iron Ore: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - Coking Coal: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - Coke: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - Silicon Iron: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - Silicon Manganese: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - Pigs: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - Corn: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - Sugar: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - Cotton: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - Oils: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - Jujubes: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - Apples: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - PX: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - PTA: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - Short - Fiber: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - Bottle Chips: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - Pure Benzene: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - Styrene: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - LLDPE: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - PP: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - Methanol: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - Caustic Soda: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - PVC: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - Soda Ash: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - Glass: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - Natural Rubber: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].