LPG早报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East resources are tight, the premium is still rising, and the winter prices are difficult to fall. The official price of January CP is approaching. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to pay more attention to the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Analysis - Domestic Civil Gas Prices: On Thursday, the civil gas prices in East China, Shandong, and South China were 4389 (-3), 4310 (-10), and 4505 (+25) respectively. The price of ether - post carbon four was 4520 (-50). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, the basis of the main contract was 266, the 01 - 02 month spread was 207 (+48), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -203 (-6) [4]. - PG Futures Market: The PG futures price repaired upwards. The 01 basis was 162 (-187), the 01 - 02 month spread was 119 (+35), the 03 - 04 month spread was -206 (+33), and the number of warehouse receipts was 3368 (-108) [4]. International Market and Spread Analysis - External Market Spreads: The FEI month spread strengthened, the CP month spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The spreads between PG - CP, PG - FEI, FEI - MB, and FEI - CP were 99.6 (+28), 85.6 (+20), 170 (+6), and 14 (+8) respectively. The landed premium of propane in East China was 83 (-7), and the FOB premiums of propane in the Middle East and the United States were 13 (-24.25), 51 (+9), and 43 (-4) US dollars respectively. FEI - MOPJ was -19.25 [4]. Supply and Demand and Profit Analysis - Supply and Inventory: The number of arriving ships decreased by 7.64%, the port inventory decreased by 7.89%, the commercial volume of refineries increased by 0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by 0.03%. The PDH operating rate was 75% (+2.13 percentage points) [4]. - Profit Situation: The spot profit of PDH was weak, and the futures profit repaired upwards [4].