燃料油早报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, and the monthly spread weakened, while the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis also fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3][5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residue oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residue oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residue oil inventory increased slightly [3][5]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upside space was limited [5]. - The global residue oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations and feedstock price premiums. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but lacked a driving force [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 323.91 | 332.23 | 333.06 | 331.79 | 331.98 | 0.19 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 370.46 | 379.22 | 381.38 | 379.41 | 379.54 | 0.13 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | - 8.86 | - 8.91 | - 9.15 | - 9.49 | - 9.56 | - 0.07 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 588.07 | 597.32 | 607.46 | 608.64 | 607.21 | - 1.43 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 217.61 | - 218.10 | - 226.08 | - 229.23 | - 227.67 | 1.56 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 20.77 | 20.41 | 21.48 | 22.69 | - | - | | VLSFO - HSF M1 | 46.55 | 46.99 | 48.32 | 47.62 | 47.56 | - 0.06 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 335.69 | 340.79 | 347.07 | 347.60 | 344.23 | - 3.37 | | 180cst M1 | 342.69 | 347.66 | 352.82 | 352.53 | 349.23 | - 3.30 | | VLSFO M1 | 404.73 | 411.59 | 417.13 | 420.80 | 417.54 | - 3.26 | | GO M1 | 78.63 | 79.11 | 79.71 | 81.24 | 80.63 | - 0.61 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | - 6.57 | - 6.90 | - 6.88 | - 7.39 | - 7.63 | - 0.24 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 177.13 | - 173.82 | - 172.72 | - 180.38 | - 179.12 | 1.26 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 332.35 | 337.57 | 344.15 | 343.65 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 403.41 | 410.73 | 416.98 | 417.55 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 2.95 | - 2.80 | - 1.85 | - 1.60 | - | - | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | - | - | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | - | - | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2356 | 2413 | 2433 | 2415 | 2431 | 16 | | FU 05 | 2415 | 2474 | 2496 | 2498 | 2499 | 1 | | FU 09 | 2382 | 2440 | 2463 | 2468 | 2466 | - 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 59 | - 61 | - 63 | - 83 | - 68 | 15 | | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 3 | | FU 09 - 01 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 35 | - 18 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2886 | 2969 | 2976 | 3000 | 3070 | 70 | | LU 05 | 2912 | 2974 | 2994 | 3013 | 3008 | - 5 | | LU 09 | 2952 | 3010 | 3026 | 3039 | 3044 | 5 | | LU 01 - 05 | - | - 5 | - 18 | - 13 | 62 | 75 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 40 | - 36 | - 32 | - 26 | - 36 | - 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 66 | 41 | 50 | 39 | - 26 | - 65 | [3]