原油成品油早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily News - Iran's natural gas supply interruption caused Iraq to lose about 4500 megawatts of power - generating capacity due to technical issues and increased domestic energy demand in Iran during winter [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with US envoy Witkoff and Trump's senior advisor Kushner, and the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [4] - The early - batch crude oil quota for 2026 was issued with a year - on - year increase, and the expectation of fuel oil feedstock weakened. The market was worried about Venezuelan fuel oil supply due to US sanctions, and the short - term sentiment was dominant [4] 3.2 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, with a previous value of - 932.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels, with a previous value of 251.1 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels, with a previous value of 483.5 million barrels [4] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves last week was 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [5] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers led to an oil price rebound, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to occur [5] - Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. The oil market de - stocked this week, and on Friday, the calendar spreads of the three major crude oil markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken [5] - The US refinery operating rate was at a high level, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated. The oversupply in the fundamentals was confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation [5] - In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]