永安期货甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251226

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but floating storage is high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. It is believed that the end - point of contract 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year.后续供应预计环比略增加, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, contract 01 is expected to face neutral to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance [3]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From December 19 to 25, 2025, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes such as a 25 - yuan decrease in Jiangsu spot [1]. - Inventory and Market Situation: Iranian plants shut down, ports and inland areas rebounded, basis strengthened slightly, ports destocked for two weeks but floating storage was high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation. November shipments from Iran were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, and other products changed, with daily changes like a 10 - yuan decrease in North China LL [3]. - Inventory and Market Situation: Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year, upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around - 200, and domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 75 - yuan increase in East China PP [3]. - Inventory and Market Situation: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, import profit is around - 700, exports are good, and subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - Price Data: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 10 - yuan decrease in the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China [3]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The basis remains stable, downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [3].