建信期货油脂日报-20251226

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Settlement price 8516, opening price 8520, highest price 8578, lowest price 8506, closing price 8542, up 26 (0.31%), trading volume 299943, open interest 434218, down 14422 [7] - P2601: Settlement price 8492, opening price 8502, highest price 8558, lowest price 8498, closing price 8514, up 22 (0.26%), trading volume 22134, open interest 23925, down 13555 [7] - Y2605: Settlement price 778, opening price 7766, highest price 7832, lowest price 7760, closing price 7824, up 46 (0.59%), trading volume 202686, open interest 642712, down 15724 [7] - Y2601: Settlement price 8004, opening price 7988, highest price 8050, lowest price 7988, closing price 8044, up 40 (0.50%), trading volume 69651, open interest 24712, up 66899 [7] - OI605: Settlement price 8901, opening price 8003, highest price 9020, lowest price 8961, closing price 8981, up 80 (0.90%), trading volume 181994, open interest 197238, up 972 [7] - OI601: Settlement price 9181, opening price 9314, highest price 9372, lowest price 9286, closing price 9361, up 180 (1.96%), trading volume 8539, open interest 12038, down 2656 [7] Basis Price - East China tertiary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 530; February - March: OI2605 + 490 [7] - East China primary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 730; February - March: OI2601 + 690 [7] - East China market primary soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y05 + 500; February - March: Y2605 + 460; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300 [7] - Dongguan palm oil quotes: Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree: 05 + 160; Dongguan COFCO 18 - degree: 05 + 100; Dongguan factories 24 - degree: 05 - 30; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree: 05 + 20 [7] Operation Suggestions - Focus on the spot - futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and temporarily view it as a rebound [8] - CBOT soybeans and Malaysian futures are closed for Christmas. The supply - demand fundamentals of forward contracts are mixed. China's soybean procurement is progressing steadily, supporting CBOT soybeans, but US soybean export data is still weak, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [8] - Domestic soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price has strong support at 7800 - 8000 [8] - Due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is difficult to sustain [8] - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed production hits a record, and Canadian exports are affected by Chinese tariffs. The market believes its valuation should decline. However, rapeseed oil spot is experiencing continuous inventory reduction, with concentrated ownership, and the basis quote is firm. Wait for the first - quarter tariff policy to be clear [8] - Due to the excessive decline, the futures price has rebounded from oversold levels, but be cautious about the unilateral upward height [8] - In arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil, and short on rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. Production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 2.12%, Sarawak decreased by 0.75%, and East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% [11] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1058112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - RMB exchange rate [13][15][18][26][32][33]