建信期货生猪日报-20251226

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply and demand both increase, but demand has weakened after the Winter Solstice. The futures market is under pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts due to increased supply, but the 03 contract may be relatively favorable after the Spring Festival, with increased bottom - oscillation frequency. The progress of the epidemic needs continuous tracking [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: On the 25th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell in a volatile manner, closing down. The highest was 11,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,410 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,460 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,496 lots to 347,337 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.58 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Analysis: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than last year, increasing supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state with a small amount of rolling replenishment demand. Due to the continuous cooling, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased, and terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. However, after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. The anti - dumping tax on imported pork from the EU has a limited impact [9] 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided 3. Data Overview - In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week - As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised with purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week - As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week, a weekly increase of 0.42%, up 1.37 kg from last month, a monthly increase of 1.06%, and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [14]