建信期货原油日报-20251226

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes - WTI主力: Opened at $58.47, closed at $58.4, highest at $58.75, lowest at $58.13, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 9.64 million lots [6] - Brent主力: Opened at $61.97, closed at $61.84, highest at $62.22, lowest at $61.55, down 0.05%, with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots [6] - SC主力: Opened at 444 yuan/barrel, closed at 442.7 yuan/barrel, highest at 444.5 yuan/barrel, lowest at 440.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 4.59 million lots [6] - Operation Suggestions - Short - term fundamentals are neutral, and the market is trading the US sanctions on Venezuela. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in surplus, short positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoints - US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil directly affect about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types such as those from Russia or Iran [7] - Venezuelan export disruptions have a greater impact on the Chinese asphalt market than on the crude oil market. The asphalt situation can be used to judge Venezuelan exports [7] - Weekly data shows that crude oil inventories continue to decline, refinery crude input reaches the highest level in the same period in 5 years, while refined oil products are relatively weak, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing. This is unfavorable for maintaining high refinery operations, and the data is neutral [7] - In the medium term, crude oil supply surplus will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [7] Group 4: Industry News - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russia's oil production in 2025 is expected to be the same as in 2024, about 516 million tons. Oil consumption has increased by more than 1 million barrels per day annually in the past two years, and may reach 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [8] - US officials: The White House has ordered its troops to focus almost entirely on enforcing isolation measures on Venezuelan sanctioned oil for at least the next two months [8] - Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov: There is currently no plan to arrange a phone call between Putin and Trump [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data includes global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [11][12][14][21] - Data sources are EIA, Bloomberg, and wind, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]