白糖日报-20251226

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, with the主力 March contract up 0.66% to 15.30 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures also rose, with the主力 March contract up 0.76% to $435.20 per ton. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season boosted sugar prices, but raw sugar remains in a sideways consolidation [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed at 5,269 yuan per ton, up 54 yuan or 1.04%, with a reduction of 10,734 positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained flat. The rumor of sugar storage has no further news, and Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward momentum without more positive stimuli. The 01 contract has a negative basis, which is favorable for delivery, and it faces greater pressure to continue rising without more positives [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR601 | 5,364 yuan/ton | 33 | 0.62% | 23,794 | -4,556 | | SR605 | 5,269 yuan/ton | 54 | 1.04% | 455,396 | -10,734 | | US Sugar 03 | 15.30 cents/pound | 0.10 | 0.66% | 434,178 | -5,537 | | US Sugar 05 | 14.89 cents/pound | 0.07 | 0.47% | 197,454 | 120 | [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, and London ICE white sugar futures also rose. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season supported sugar prices, and raw sugar is in a sideways trend [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed higher with reduced positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained stable. Without more positive news about the rumored sugar storage, Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward impetus. The 01 contract has a negative basis, and it is difficult to rise further without more positives [8]. Group 5: Industry News - Agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado predicts that sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season will be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season. Brazil's total sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons. The region's cane crushing volume is expected to reach 600 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year's 595 million tons. The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to drop to 47% from 49% in the 2025/26 season [9]. - From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills started operation in Yunnan. This week, 2 - 3 more are expected to start. As of now, 35 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 season in Yunnan, 5 more than the same period last year, with an expected cane - crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day [9]. - The Philippine Department of Agriculture announced on the 21st that the import ban on sugar will be extended until December 2026 to protect the domestic sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The recovery of domestic raw sugar production is the main reason for this policy adjustment. The department will strengthen the supervision of local sugar mills to ensure the accuracy of refined sugar inventory data [9]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides charts on spot price trends, 2605 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading volume and open interest of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract, with data sources mainly from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [11][14][19]