Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [4] - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and the packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 70, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [4] - Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to the strong propane price. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6220 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 46, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, which is bearish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [6] - Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data - LLDPE: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6320 (+100), the 05 - contract price is 6390 (-18), the basis is - 70, the import price in US dollars is 755 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6532 (-4), and the import price difference is - 212 (+104). The warehouse receipt is 11,265 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), and the social inventory is 472,000 tons (+3,000) [8] - PP: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6220 (+40), the 05 - contract price is 6266 (-12), the basis is - 46, the import price in US dollars is 750 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6490 (-4), and the import price difference is - 270 (+44). The warehouse receipt is 14,935 (+3,000), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), and the social inventory is 293,000 tons (-12,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251226
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-26 02:22