大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be weak. Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, and after three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be weak. The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly due to the strong wait - and - see sentiment of intermediate speculative traders. The current rigid demand for coke is still restricted, and the market supply and demand are in a relatively loose state [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, while some high - quality main coking coal prices are relatively firm; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1140 yuan, and the basis is 16 yuan; the spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 801 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1957 million tons, a decrease of 21 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main position: The main coking coal position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: After three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. Some coking and steel enterprises with high raw coal inventory are controlling arrivals. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. Except for slight production restrictions in some areas, coking enterprises in other regions are operating normally, and the local production is on the rise. However, intermediate speculative traders are highly wait - and - see, and the demand of traders has not been released. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of metallurgical coke market is relatively loose; bearish [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1610 yuan, and the basis is - 129 yuan; the spot price is lower than the futures price; bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 626 million tons, port inventory is 187 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 million tons. The total sample inventory is 858 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [7]. - Main position: The main coke position is net long, and long positions are increasing; bullish [7]. - Expectation: At present, the rigid demand for coke is still restricted, downstream steel mills are at a reasonable or higher level, intermediate trade demand is mostly waiting and seeing, while the coke supply continues to improve and the inventory continues to accumulate. It is expected that the short - term coke market will be weak [7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. 3.3 Price Information - The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on December 25th (17:30), including the price, price change, and other information of different grades and origins of metallurgical coke in various ports [10]. 3.4 Inventory Information - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. 3.5 Other Information - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].