大越期货纯碱早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile and downward. The supply is expected to be abundant as the production of soda ash plants is at a high level and the second - phase project of Yuangxing is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash is 1184 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1130 yuan/ton, and the main base difference is - 54 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1130 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [14]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [17][19]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - Sales Rate: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash plants nationwide is 143.85 tons, a decrease of 4.06% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [33]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance and slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to weakening demand [4]. 3.8 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level during the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5].