大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent changes in PTA devices are relatively small, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be acceptable. The futures market has risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, the second - phase device of CNOOC Shell has been successfully restarted. The changes of Huayi and Yulin Chemical devices should be noted around the end of the month. There is still room for a slight increase in the overall ethylene glycol operating rate, and the domestic supply will show a certain increase. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be mainly sorted at a low level, and the impact of cost and device news should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened. The negotiation was mainly among traders. The December goods were negotiated at a discount of 10 - 16 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4995 - 5110. The January goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 13. The spot is 5060, the basis of the 05 contract is - 92, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net long, and the long position increases [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The spot negotiation of ethylene glycol was around a discount of 0 - 15 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract traders in the market actively replenished their stocks, and there was little negotiation for next - week's spot. In the morning, affected by the decline in polyester load, the ethylene glycol market declined moderately, and in the afternoon, the market maintained a narrow range. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly. The January shipment was negotiated and traded at around 438 - 445 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in the offer at high prices, with the overall transaction being relatively stalemate. The spot is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 183, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases [8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - Price and Profit Data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 25 and 24, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and production profits of different products [13]. 5.影响因素总结 - Likely Influencing Factors: Not provided in the content - Unfavorable Influencing Factors: Not provided in the content - Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]