大越期货玻璃早报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory at a historical high for the same period. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized at a low level, deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, so it is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1048 yuan/ton to 1047 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 932 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 116 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.86% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 932 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 219, with an operating rate of 73.90%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.11% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, production was 55.1 million tons, consumption was 53.1 million tons, production growth rate was 3.94%, and consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs have led to production losses [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [5].