大越期货油脂早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand is improving, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8202, with a basis of 374, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22nd, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market Trend: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but the subsequent production season will lead to an increase in palm oil supply [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8540, with a basis of 2, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22nd, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market Trend: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9801, with a basis of 820, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22nd, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market Trend: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely to Rise: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Likely to Fall: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level in history, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]