大越期货原油早报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight geopolitical news led to a rise in oil prices. Russia - Ukraine negotiations continue while attacks on energy facilities persist. Ukraine's strikes on some Russian refineries increased market concerns. Trump's order to conduct an air - strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve also worried the market about the energy export safety of this oil - producing country. Short - term oil prices will rise with the impact of events and operate in a strong oscillation. SC2602 will operate in the range of 440 - 450, and long - term investors should wait [3] - The market is driven by short - term geopolitical positives, but faces a risk of oversupply in the medium and long term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - For crude oil 2602: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk performance is neutral; the main positions are bearish. Overall, short - term oil prices will operate in a strong oscillation, and SC2602 will operate in the 440 - 450 range [3] 2. Recent News - Trump ordered an air - strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, which may be related to Nigeria's oil self - sufficiency ability and rare earth minerals. Ukraine's President had a conversation about ending the war with Russia, and Russia is analyzing the cease - fire documents. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said that Russia's oil and condensate production this year is about the same as in 2024, and the global oil market is balanced [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors are not mentioned; bearish factor is the easing of the Middle East situation. The market is driven by short - term geopolitical positives and faces a risk of oversupply in the medium and long term. Risk points include the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [6][7] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: Brent crude oil settled at 61.80 (down 0.07, or - 0.11%); WTI crude oil settled at 58.35 (down 0.03, or - 0.05%); SC crude oil settled at 443.0 (up 0.40, or 0.09%); Oman crude oil settled at 62.57 (up 0.28, or 0.45%) [8] - Spot Quotes: UK Brent Dtd was at 63.73 (up 0.50, or 0.79%); WTI was at 58.35 (down 0.03, or - 0.05%); Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim was at 62.77 (up 0.44, or 0.71%); Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim was at 58.03 (up 0.11, or 0.19%); Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim was at 62.51 (up 0.29, or 0.47%) [10] - Inventory Data: As of the week ending December 19, US API crude oil inventory increased by 239.1 million barrels; as of the week ending December 12, EIA inventory decreased by 127.4 million barrels, and Cushing area inventory decreased by 74.2 million barrels. As of December 24, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 346.4 million barrels [3] 5. Position Data - As of December 9, WTI crude oil main positions were long, and the number of long positions increased; as of December 16, Brent crude oil main positions were long, and the number of long positions decreased [3] - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: On December 9, it was 58,433, an increase of 7,396 [17] - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: On December 16, it was 32,940, a decrease of 74,876 [19]