沪锌期货早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2602) is expected to be a volatile rebound. The previous trading day saw a volatile decline in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - position reductions. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, and short - term indicators suggest a possible upward movement, although the advantage of the long side is narrowing [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a bullish fundamental situation [2]. Basis - The spot price was 23,140, and the basis was +75, presenting a neutral situation [2]. Inventory - On December 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons to 106,875 tons. On December 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrant decreased by 1,092 tons to 41,319 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. Market Trends - On December 25, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts was 221,618 lots, with a trading value of 2.55074052 billion yuan. The total open interest was 196,811 lots, a decrease of 5,069 lots [3]. Spot Market - On December 25, the domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 23,090 - 23,190 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,940 - 23,040 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,980 - 23,080 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 23,190 - 23,290 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 50 US dollars/dry ton [4]. Inventory Statistics - From December 15 to December 25, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 125,800 tons to 111,600 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons [5]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - On December 25, the total warehouse receipts of zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 41,319 tons, a decrease of 1,092 tons. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 747 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 345 tons [7]. LME Inventory - On December 25, the LME zinc inventory increased in some locations. For example, in one location, the inventory increased by 7,900 tons to 106,875 tons, and in another, it increased by 8,300 tons to 70,650 tons [9]. Zinc Concentrate Price - On December 25, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was around 19,850 yuan/ton, with a decline of 150 yuan/ton [10]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 25, the price of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., decreased by 180 yuan/ton [13]. Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual production of domestic refined zinc was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%. The planned production in December was 477,500 tons [15]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On December 25, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade was mostly in the range of 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% - grade was 40 - 60 US dollars/dry ton [17]. Futures Trading and Position Ranking - On December 25, the total trading volume of zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 191,452 lots, a decrease of 83,328 lots. The total long - position was 62,162 lots, a decrease of 2,467 lots, and the total short - position was 67,074 lots, a decrease of 675 lots [18].