大越期货菜粕早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern due to the off - season of rapeseed meal demand and low inventory [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 fluctuates in the range of 2340 - 2400. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the basis being in a premium situation (spot 2540, basis 188), inventory at a low level (0.02 tons, unchanged from last week and a 99.29% year - on - year decrease), the price below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, the main position changing from short to long with capital outflows, and it is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and supply is expected to be tight in the short term while demand is decreasing. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but exports to China are expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the impact of Ukraine's rapeseed production decline and Russia's increase is relatively offset. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 16th to 24th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138, and the trading volume ranged from 3.55 - 18.45 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 586 - 631 [13]. - From December 17th to 25th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (near - month 2601) fluctuated between 2389 - 2436, the main contract 2605 between 2323 - 2352, and the spot price in Fujian between 2500 - 2540 [15]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 from December 16th to 24th [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined, and the spot price followed the fluctuation, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [17][19]. - The import of rapeseed increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume remained at zero [22][24][26]. - The price of aquatic fish declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis content provided other than the information that the main position changed from short to long with capital outflows in the rapeseed meal analysis [9].