大越期货贵金属早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - During the Christmas holiday, gold prices were boosted by silver prices. Gold futures had a price of 1008.76, and the spot price was 1002.92, with a basis of -5.84, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 93711 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased. With overseas stock markets closed in many places, attention should be paid to China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in November and Japan's unemployment rate in November. The gold - silver ratio was at a low level, providing support for gold prices [4]. - During the Christmas holiday, Shanghai silver prices rose significantly again, while the London market did not follow up after the holiday. The silver futures price was 17397, and the spot price was 17433, with a basis of +6, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 29532 kilograms to 852417 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased. Domestic silver prices rose independently and significantly during the Christmas holiday, and the Shanghai silver premium continued to expand. With overseas Christmas holidays, abnormal price increases were still possible, and silver prices remained strong under the support of funds, but there was a risk of high premiums in silver funds [5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recently, the Fed's interest rate cuts and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks had a combined impact, and with concerns about liquidity, there was still upward momentum for gold prices, but it was limited [9]. - Silver prices mainly followed gold prices. The tariff concern had a stronger impact on silver prices, and there was a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices. There were both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil and inflation concerns on the positive side, and the Fed's internal divergence and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the negative side [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - The report provides the previous day's closing, highest, lowest, price changes, and price change percentages of various precious metal products, including Shanghai gold 2602, Shanghai silver 2602, COMEX gold 2602, etc. For example, Shanghai gold 2602 closed at 1008.76, with a high of 1014.28, a low of 1003.12, a price change of -3.90, and a price change percentage of -0.39% [16]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Attention should be paid to Japan's unemployment rate, Tokyo CPI, industrial output, and retail sales in November; China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November; and a news conference by the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 07:30, Japan's November unemployment rate, job - seeking ratio, and December Tokyo CPI; at 07:50, Japan's November industrial output preliminary value and retail sales; the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada are closed all day; the first Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area Low - altitude Economy High - quality Development Conference is held at an undetermined time; at 10:30, the National Development and Reform Commission holds a news conference to introduce the work related to the national venture capital guidance fund; on Saturday at 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November are announced [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The unchanged warehouse receipts are also bearish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with a decrease in long positions is also bullish [4]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The decrease in warehouse receipts is bullish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with an increase in long positions is bullish [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Shanghai Gold: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 189,259, a decrease of 3,766 or 1.95% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 55,546, a decrease of 501 or 0.89%; the net positions were 133,713, a decrease of 3,265 or 2.38% [30]. - Shanghai Silver: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 393,810, a decrease of 8,438 or 2.10% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 306,880, a decrease of 4,494 or 1.44%; the net positions were 86,930, a decrease of 3,944 or 4.34% [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF holdings turned to an increase [34]. - Silver ETF: The ETF holdings decreased slightly [36]. - Shanghai Gold Warehouse Receipts: There was a slight increase [38]. - COMEX Gold Warehouse Receipts: There was a slight increase and remained at a high level [39]. - Shanghai Silver Warehouse Receipts: Continued to decrease slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years [41]. - COMEX Silver Warehouse Receipts: Continued to decrease [41].