大越期货沥青期货早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure may be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The total planned production volume of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points [7]. - The demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - The cost support may weaken in the short term as the daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. Also, the crude oil price has weakened [8]. - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side: The total planned production of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 487,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Refineries have cut production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - Demand - side: The current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - Cost - side: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The crude oil price has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - Other aspects: On December 25th, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 75 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory is 714,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%; the in - plant inventory is 594,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.55%. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased. It is expected that the refinery's recent production scheduling cuts will reduce supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, the inventory remains flat, the cost support of crude oil weakens in the short term, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report shows the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and production data of different types of asphalt (such as heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the inventory data of different regions and types of inventories (social inventory, in - plant inventory, port diluted asphalt inventory) [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis trend: It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - Spread analysis: - Main contract spread: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It shows the historical trends of the prices of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][41]. - Supply - side analysis: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It shows the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - Production volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][49]. - Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [52][53]. - Local refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - Capacity utilization rate: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - Estimated maintenance loss volume: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - Inventory analysis: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][67]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - Import - export situation: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - Apparent consumption: It shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [86][87][88]. - Downstream machinery demand: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - Asphalt开工率: - Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - Asphalt开工率 by use: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - Downstream开工情况: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from September 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].