大越期货燃料油早报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it gives a "neutral" assessment for multiple aspects of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, and inventory [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit margins have slowed due to sufficient immediate supply and weak downstream demand, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is expected to get some support in 2026, but faces pressure from alternative fuels and sufficient supply of sanctioned cargoes [3]. - The market is affected by geopolitical factors. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine negotiations and continuous attacks on energy facilities support crude - related prices. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains at the current level, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market still has support. In the short term, it will operate in a volatile manner. The FU2603 is expected to operate in the 2500 - 2550 range, and the LU2603 in the 3010 - 3050 range [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include Russian fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises, while negative factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The report provides information on the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and price trends. It also gives expected price ranges for FU2603 and LU2603 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - Positive factors: Russian fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Negative factors: The optimistic demand on the demand side remains to be verified, and upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by sufficient supply and weak demand, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has support from the increase in ships with desulfurization towers but faces competition from alternative fuels and sufficient supply of sanctioned cargoes [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 6 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 17 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory on the week of December 17 was 2255.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels [3]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are both long, with the high - sulfur long positions decreasing and the low - sulfur long positions increasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report shows the price changes and spreads of FU and LU futures contracts, including the previous value, current value, change, and change percentage [5]. 3.5 Inventory Data - The report presents the inventory and its changes of Singapore fuel oil from October 8 to December 17 [8].