广发期货原木期货日报-20251226

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - From December 22 - 28, 2025, 9 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 fewer than last week, a 40% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume is about 30.9 million cubic meters, 21.5 million cubic meters less than last week, a 41% week - on - week decrease [3] - Recently, the log futures price has recovered to near the warehouse receipt cost. The latest data shows a significant inventory reduction. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, there is an expectation of reduced shipments. Demand remains stable but weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 25, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 765.5, 778.0, and 785.5 respectively, with changes of - 1.0, + 2.0, and + 1.5 compared to December 24, and the price changes were - 0.13%, 0.26%, and 0.19% respectively [2] - The prices of most spot log varieties remained unchanged on December 25, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 yuan to 730 yuan, with a 1.39% increase [2] - The external market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on December 26 compared to December 19 [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 25, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.997 yuan, down 0.01 yuan from December 24, and the import theoretical cost was 771.33 yuan, down 1.40 yuan from December 24 [2] Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a 6.01% decrease from October; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, a 9.26% decrease from the previous period [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 19, the log inventory in Chinese ports was 260 million cubic meters, a 4.41% decrease from December 12; the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 19, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, a 2% decrease from December 12; the daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3]