永安期货集运早报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2602 contract, its future price mainly depends on the spot market. The peak height and timing of freight rates in January, as well as the subsequent decline rhythm, are difficult to predict. It is not recommended to enter the market at the current level [3][12] - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but it may follow the spot market or recover the basis in the short - term. It is advisable to short on rallies [3][12] - The far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. It is safer to short the off - peak season contracts than the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the shorting opportunity of the EC2610 contract [3][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1608.0, with a change of 0.13%, a change value of - 18.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 112, and the position decreased by 76 to 1714 [2][11] - EC2602: The price was 1799.7, up 0.22%, with a change value of - 210.5. The trading volume was 28762, and the position was 34250, a decrease of 66 [2][11] - EC2604: The price was 1164.5, down 0.04%, with a change value of 424.7. The trading volume was 6267, and the position increased by 264 to 21254 [2][11] - EC2606: The price was 1320.0, up 0.08%, with a change value of 269.2. The trading volume was 258, and the position decreased by 19 to 2126 [2][11] - EC2608: The price was 1496.7, up 1.06%, with a change value of 92.5. The trading volume was 112, and the position decreased by 12 to 1181 [2][11] - EC2610: The price was 1059.0, up 0.715%, with a change value of 530.2. The trading volume was 811, and the position increased by 2777 to 5941 [2][11] Month - spread Data - EC2512 - 2504: The month - spread was 443.5, with a daily increase of 2.6 and a weekly decrease of 64.4 [2][11] - EC2512 - 2602: The month - spread was - 191.7, with a daily decrease of 1.8 and a weekly decrease of 123.9 [2][11] - EC2502 - 2604: The month - spread was 635.2, with a daily increase of 4.4 and a weekly increase of 59.5 [2][11] Spot Market Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): Updated every Monday, the value on 2025/12/22 was 1589.20 points, up 5.21% from the previous period [2][11] - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday, the value on 2025/12/19 was 1533 dollars/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period [2][11] - CCFI: Updated weekly on a certain day, the value on 2025/12/19 was 1473.9 points, up 0.23% from the previous period [2][11] - NCFI: Updated weekly on a certain day, the value on 2025/12/19 was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period [2][11] European Line Spot Situation - In Week 52, MSK opened the cabin at 2300 dollars (a decrease of 100 dollars compared to the previous week), and other companies mainly followed Week 51 prices. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures盘面 [4][13] - All shipping companies are calling for a price increase for January cabins. MSK's January upper - half quote is 2500 dollars, and it will rise to 2600 dollars in week 2 to Hamburg, while other ports remain flat. The central price of shipping companies' January quotes is about 2500 - 2600 dollars [4][13] Geopolitical News - On December 25, 2025, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel will never completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will establish a security zone inside the Gaza Strip in the future [4][13]