Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule is decreasing but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8740 - 8930 for the 2605 contract [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule is continuously decreasing, and the demand side shows a continuous decline in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a state of continuous recession, while cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59670 - 61850 for the 2605 contract [7][8][9]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [12][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week [3]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 81,000 tons, a 8.00% increase compared to the previous week, indicating a rise in demand [3]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 303,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory is 43,900 tons, at a low level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 72,300 tons, at a high level. The social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 1.42% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory is 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase; the main port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 1.47% increase [3]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Basis: On December 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 365 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - Market trend: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above MA20, which is neutral [3]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [3]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8740 - 8930 [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,000 tons, a 0.39% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7][8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.67GW, a 12.18% decrease; the inventory was 215,000 tons, a 7.72% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month. In November, the battery cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease; last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 10.06GW, a 6.56% increase. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease; in December, the expected component production is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [7][9]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On December 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 8,410 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history, which is bearish [10]. - Market trend: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above MA20, which is bullish [10]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59670 - 61850 [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: The prices of various contracts have decreased to varying degrees, with the largest decline of 0.68% for the 07 contract [16]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts has increased, with the largest increase of 94.17% for the 09 contract [16]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract remains unchanged, while the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract has decreased by 33.33% [16]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts remains unchanged at 9,259 [16]. - Organic silicon: The weekly DMC production is 45,900 tons, a 6.52% decrease; the daily capacity utilization rate remains unchanged at 69.79%; the daily DMC price remains unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton; the monthly DMC inventory is 43,900 tons, a 22.02% decrease [16]. - Aluminum alloy: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains unchanged at 21,950 yuan/ton; the daily import ADC12 actual instant profit is 228 yuan/ton, a 37.35% increase; the monthly primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 121,300 tons, an 8.66% decrease; the monthly recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 682,000 tons, a 5.74% increase; the weekly aluminum alloy ingot social inventory is 72,300 tons, a 1.09% decrease [16]. - Spot price: The prices of various industrial silicon products in East China remain unchanged [16]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 1.43% decrease; the weekly sample enterprise inventory is 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase; the weekly main port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 1.47% increase [16]. - Production/operating rate: The weekly sample enterprise production is 45,450 tons, a 0.57% decrease; the weekly Yunnan sample production is 2,560 tons, a 9.22% decrease; the weekly Yunnan sample operating rate is 22.09%, a 9.21% decrease [16]. - Cost - profit: The costs and profits of silicon products in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang remain unchanged [16]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: The prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 5.83% for the 11 contract [18]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts has decreased, with the largest decrease of 41.34% for the 05 contract [18]. - Silicon wafer: The weekly silicon wafer production is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase; the weekly silicon wafer inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [18]. - Battery cell: The daily battery cell profit of 182mm has increased by 10.28%, and the daily battery cell profit of 210mm has decreased by 2.56% [18]. - Component: The monthly component production is 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease; the domestic monthly component inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly component inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease [18]. - Polysilicon: The weekly total inventory is 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase; the monthly Chinese polysilicon supply - demand balance is 25,900 tons, a 12.61% increase; the monthly Chinese polysilicon export volume is 1,500 tons, a 28.57% decrease; the monthly Chinese polysilicon consumption volume is 108,000 tons, a 1.60% increase; the monthly Chinese polysilicon import volume is 1,400 tons, a 13.4% increase [18].
工业硅期货早报-20251226
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-26 05:46