生猪市场周报：元旦备货需求，支撑生猪价格-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply pressure of live pigs is alleviated as the large - scale farms' slaughter progress is normal in the second half of the month, the slaughter pressure at the end of the month decreases, the supply of fat pigs is low, and some second - fattening farmers' willingness to enter the market increases. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausage are increasing, and there is stocking demand before the New Year's Day, so the terminal consumption is good, which supports the price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern improves in the short - term, boosting the short - term strong - side oscillation of live pig prices. In the medium - term, the supply pressure still exists, and as the price rises further, the acceptance of the demand terminal will decline, and the attitude of second - fattening farmers will become more cautious, so the medium - term upward space is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The live pig price rebounded, and the main contract 2603 rose 2.83% weekly [6][10]. - In the near term, the supply - demand situation improves, but in the medium - term, the upward space is limited [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - The futures price rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 2.83% weekly [10]. - As of December 26th, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 5323 hands to 51717 hands, and the number of futures warrants was 863, an increase of 40 from the previous week [16]. - The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 445, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1120 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - This week, the basis of the live pig 1 - month contract was 500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3 - month contract was 155 yuan/ton [26]. - The national average price of live pigs was 11.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.38 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [36]. - As of the week of December 18th, the national average pork price was 22.53 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.46 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [40]. - As of the week of December 10th, the pig - grain ratio was 5.18, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In October 2025, the number of reproductive sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%, falling below 40 million for the first time since June 2024. In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the number of live pigs was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of commercial pigs slaughtered in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%, and in small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from the previous week [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of December 26th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 162.8 yuan/head, a reduction of 26.7 yuan/head, and the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, a reduction of 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 broilers was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, with an average of 83,600 tons per month. In November, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [64][68]. - As of the week of December 26th, the price of白条鸡 was 14.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of December 25th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [73]. - As of December 26th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3174.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2338.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - As of December 26th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 894.54, and the price of finishing pig feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [81]. - In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons, and the sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 52nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from the previous week [92]. - As of October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.98% and 33.31%. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not give specific analysis [98][100].