资金持续宽松，债市偏强震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic fundamentals showed marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail in November, with fixed investment in continuous negative growth and stable unemployment. Financial data in November was structurally differentiated, with social financing increment exceeding expectations due to direct financing, but credit continued to weaken, and the demand for long - term corporate investment remained weak. CPI continued to improve, while the decline of PPI widened slightly. Overseas, the US economy maintained resilience with strong consumption, but the job market cooled. The market's expectation of future interest - rate cuts increased. The central bank's monetary policy in the next year will continue the moderately loose tone, but the urgency of short - term interest - rate cuts is low. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - Weekly Data: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts rose by 0.27%, 0.14%, 0.08%, and 0.06% respectively. The trading volume of the TS main contract increased, while the trading volumes of the TF, T, and TL main contracts decreased slightly. The open interest of the TF, T, TS, and TL main contracts all increased [13][16][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Domestic News: On December 22, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged, with cumulative decreases of 10 basis points this year. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to optimize real - estate policies. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in the fourth quarter emphasized maintaining capital - market stability. The Ministry of Finance and other 9 departments formulated the enterprise climate - information disclosure guidelines. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to regulate the "new three items" industries [33][34]. - Overseas News: The US GDP in Q3 2025 increased by 4.3% quarter - on - quarter annually, and consumer spending was the main driving force. Japan's 2026 fiscal - year preliminary budget reached 122.3092 trillion yen, a record high [34][35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond yields widened. The spreads between the TF and TS, T and TF main contracts widened. The 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' near - far month spreads all widened [43][49][53][60]. - Treasury Bond Futures Main - Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased [67]. - Interest - Rate Changes: Overnight and 2 - week Shibor rates decreased, while 1 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.52%. The short - end yields of Treasury bond cash bonds were strong, with 1 - 7Y yields decreasing by 1.10 - 6.75bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 0.5bp to 1.84% and 2.22% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [69][74]. - Central Bank's Open - Market Operations: The central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 210 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed deposits this week, with 457.5 billion yuan in reverse - repo maturities and 120 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed - deposit maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.8 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.52% [78]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, the total bond issuance was 983.033 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 1081.165 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 98.132 billion yuan [82]. - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0358, with a cumulative increase of 192 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [85][91][96]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The domestic economic internal driving force needs to be boosted. The central bank's monetary policy in the next year will continue the moderately loose tone, but the short - term urgency of interest - rate cuts is low. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [99].