沪铜市场周报：供给收敛需求韧性，沪铜或将震荡运行-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate, with a supply slightly converging and demand showing resilience. Traders are advised to trade with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - The Shanghai copper main contract showed a slightly stronger weekly oscillation, with a weekly increase of +5.95% and an amplitude of 6.79%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 98,720 yuan/ton [6] - Internationally, the US economy expanded at a 4.3% rate in the third quarter, the fastest in two years, but the US consumer confidence index declined for five consecutive months. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, including copper smelting [6] - In terms of fundamentals, the spot TC processing index of copper concentrates decreased slightly, and the expectation of tight supply persisted, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to national policies and tight raw material supply, copper smelting capacity may gradually converge, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply will slow down. On the demand side, the strong copper price has curbed downstream purchases to some extent, and downstream buyers mostly replenish inventory on a need - to - buy basis. At the application end, the year - end sprint of the power, infrastructure, and new energy industries provides some resilience for copper consumption [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Shanghai copper contract strengthened this week, and the spot was at a discount. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week. The main contract price was 98,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,540 yuan/ton from last week, and the trading volume was 252,097 lots, an increase of 14,445 lots from last week [10] - The spot price increased this week. As of December 26, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 97,740 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,270 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [18] - The Shanghai copper bill of lading premium increased this week, and short positions dominated. As of the latest data, the average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF was 53 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 37,446 lots, a decrease of 12,216 lots from last week [24] 3.3 Option Market - The short - term IV of at - the - money Shanghai copper options may converge. As of December 26, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was below the 90th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.6635, a decrease of 0.0843 from last week [29] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The price of upstream copper ore increased, and the processing fee for blister copper rose. As of the latest data, the price of copper concentrates in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,430 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 1,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [32] - The import volume of copper ore increased month - on - month, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, an increase of 74,700 tons from October, a growth rate of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. As of the latest data, the spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 7,200.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,165.29 yuan/ton [36] - Global copper ore production and port inventory increased. As of October 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,938 thousand tons, an increase of 37 thousand tons from September, a growth rate of 1.95%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from September. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 680,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons [38] 3.5 Industry Situation - On the supply side, the domestic production of refined copper rebounded, and global production increased. As of November 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from October, a growth rate of 2.66% and a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. As of October 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,386 thousand tons, an increase of 21 thousand tons from September, a growth rate of 0.89%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 78.4%, a decrease of 2.1% from September [43] - The import of refined copper decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a decrease of 18,404.29 tons from October, a decline of 5.7% and a year - on - year decline of 23.47%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was - 3,124.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 513.25 yuan/ton [48][49] - Social inventory increased slightly [53] 3.6 Downstream and Application - In the downstream, the monthly production of copper products increased, and the import decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from October, a growth rate of 11.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 18.87% [61] - In the application end, the completed investment in power grids increased year - on - year, and the production of mainstream household appliances rebounded. As of November 2025, the cumulative completed investment in power and grid projects increased by - 1.8% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.5%, - 23.4%, 5.6%, 3.6%, and - 5% year - on - year respectively [65] - The completed investment in real estate decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative production of integrated circuits increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. As of November 2025, the cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43.184 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [71] 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of October 2025, the global refined copper supply was in surplus, with a monthly surplus of 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of October 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 1,400 tons [77][78]