沪锌市场周报：内需持稳延续去库，预计锌价震荡偏强-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate and adjust, with support at 22,900 yuan/ton and resistance at 23,400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.46% and an amplitude of 1.78%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 23,170 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Outlook: Macroscopically, the US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for the next 18 months. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports have declined, and domestic smelters' production is expected to decrease significantly. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors weakening, while the automobile and other sectors have some policy - supported highlights. Domestic inventories continue to decline, while LME zinc inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 23,170 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton or 0.46% from December 19, 2025. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,086.5 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars/ton or 0.42% from December 18, 2025. The Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded [10]. - Net Position and Open Interest: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 5,746 lots, an increase of 678 lots from December 19, 2025. The open interest was 200,417 lots, an increase of 6,815 lots or 3.52% from December 19, 2025 [16]. - Price Spreads: As of December 26, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025 [19]. - Spot Premiums: As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 23,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 19, 2025. The spot premium was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 24, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 28.26 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.69 US dollars/ton from December 17, 2025 [25][26]. - Inventories: As of December 24, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 106,875 tons, an increase of 9,175 tons or 9.39% from December 17, 2025. As of December 19, 2025, SHFE refined zinc inventories were 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons or 5.66% from last week. As of December 25, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 111,400 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons or 6.15% from December 18, 2025 [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Upstream: In October 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [35]. - Supply - Side: - Global Supply Gap: In October 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 108,400 tons or 9.76%. Consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,200 tons or 3.76%. The global refined zinc gap was 600 tons, compared to a gap of 64,800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS reported a global zinc market supply - demand balance of - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [40][41]. - Production Forecast: In November 2025, zinc production was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. However, production is expected to decline [44]. - Export Window: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%. The export volume was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [47]. - Downstream: - Galvanized Sheets: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 942,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. The export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [50][51]. - Real Estate: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. The housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place of real - estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.1786 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [56][57]. - Infrastructure: In November 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [62][63]. - Home Appliances: In November 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [65]. - Automobiles: In November 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The automobile production volume was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [70].