Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar - crushing season started smoothly in the early stage, while Thailand's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased. With low inventories at the market terminal and among traders, the price increase stimulated restocking sentiment. As the market gradually enters the consumption peak season, trading volume has picked up. With the interaction between domestic and international markets, the sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87% [5]. - Market Outlook: The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. As of December 24, 2025, in Thailand's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 11.5321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.54%; the sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.28%. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. As of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi and 35 sugar mills in Yunnan (5 more than the same period last year) have started crushing. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased, and trading volume picked up. The sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. - Future Focus Factors: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar March contract increased this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.03%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week [12]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.23 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.58 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. This week, the net position of the top 20 in the sugar futures was - 68,227 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 5,038 [19][26]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread: This week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 5 - 9 contracts was - 6 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 155 yuan per ton [30]. - Spot Market: As of December 26, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,440 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,380 yuan per ton [36]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,263 yuan per ton, a decrease of 122 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 58 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,123 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was - 4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 52 yuan per ton from last week [42]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply - Side - Production Increase: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [46]. - Supply - Side - Industrial Inventory: No specific data analysis provided. - Supply - Side - Imported Sugar Quantity: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [51]. - Demand - Side - Sugar Sales Rate: No specific data analysis provided. - Demand - Side - Monthly Output of Refined Sugar and Soft Drinks: In November 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [59]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - Option Market: No specific data analysis provided. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: No specific data analysis provided.
白糖市场周报-20251226
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-26 08:56