碳酸锂市场周报：供给稳增需求较好，锂价或将有所支撑-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be supported by stable supply growth and good demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position, bullish - biased strategy while controlling risks and paying attention to trading rhythm [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile and slightly upward trend on the weekly chart, with a price increase of +17.16% and an amplitude of 19.75%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 130,520 yuan/ton [7] - Macroeconomic Situation: The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, suggesting to give full play to the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the social comprehensive financing cost to remain at a low level [7] - Fundamentals - Raw Materials: Affected by the continuously strong price of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium ore has gradually increased. Driven by good profits, smelters still have a certain willingness to purchase and stockpile [7] - Supply: Lithium salt plants are actively producing, and with sufficient raw materials, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate has maintained a stable growth trend [7] - Demand: The purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers has become more cautious due to the high price of lithium carbonate. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand and long - term contracts. However, due to the strong demand in the downstream new energy vehicle and energy storage industries, the demand for lithium carbonate is good [7] - Inventory: Industrial inventory has been continuously depleted, and industry expectations are positive [7] - Viewpoint: Trade with a light - position, bullish - biased strategy and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The futures price of lithium carbonate has shown a volatile upward trend. As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 130,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19,120 yuan/ton [7][8] - Spot Price: The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased. As of December 26, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 111,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14,250 yuan/ton [17] - Basis: As of December 26, 2025, the basis of the main contract was - 18,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,870 yuan/ton [17] 3.3 Industrial Situation - Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) has strengthened. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 1,410 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 US dollars/ton [21] - Lithium Mica: The price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) has increased. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 5,163 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 762 yuan/ton [26] - Phospho - Lithium - Alumina Stone: As of December 26, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - alumina stone was 13,525 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,725 yuan/ton [26] - Supply Side - Imports and Exports: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 1,825.51 tons from October, a decline of 7.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 513.33 tons from October, an increase of 208.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 249% [32] - Production: As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,980 tons, an increase of 2,450 tons from October, an increase of 4.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 55.29%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32] - Downstream Demand - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: The quotation of hexafluorophosphate lithium has remained flat. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 180,000 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 12,150 tons from October, an increase of 5.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [33][35] - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price of lithium iron phosphate has increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 45,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 268,890 tons, an increase of 2,010 tons from October, an increase of 0.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.43%. The monthly operating rate was 63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4% [36][38] - Ternary Materials: The price of ternary materials has increased, but the output has decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,520 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from October, a decline of 0.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.65%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [41][43] - Lithium Manganate: The price of lithium manganate has increased, but the monthly output has decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,210 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from October, a decline of 0.87%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.67%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 45,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 yuan/ton [44][48] - Lithium Cobaltate: The quotation of lithium cobaltate has increased, and the monthly output has also increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 369,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 16,050 tons, an increase of 260 tons from October, an increase of 1.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 111.74% [49][51] - Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: As of November 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%; the sales volume was 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [52][53] - New Energy Vehicle Exports: As of November 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [56][58] - Options Market: According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was - 0.28, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [59][61]