瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251226

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Market Weekly Report - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting No. Z0021558 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market showed a strong fluctuation. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week-on-week. Although the actual export volume has not shown obvious abnormalities recently, market sentiment has been repeatedly affected by export expectations, which has stimulated downstream purchasing to some extent [6]. - Recently, some new device overhauls have led to a continued decline in domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of an increase in production is relatively high [6]. - Although agriculture is in the off - season for rigid demand, local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui may increase slightly, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants decreased slightly this week due to local environmental protection warnings, and it may fluctuate slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [6]. - Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factories have continuously advanced orders and improved shipments. At the same time, affected by local environmental protection warnings, some urea devices have reduced production, leading to a continued decline in domestic urea enterprise inventories. In the short term, as environmental protection warnings end and urea production rebounds, inventories are expected to rise [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market was strong this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Market sentiment was affected by export expectations, which stimulated downstream purchasing [6]. - Market Outlook: Production may increase next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, with local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui possibly increasing slightly and commercial reserve demand slowing down. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants may fluctuate slightly. Urea enterprise inventories may rise as production rebounds after environmental protection warnings end [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. - Inter - period Spread: As of December 26, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 34 [13]. - Position Analysis: Not elaborated in the text. - Warehouse Receipts: As of December 26, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, a decrease of 226 compared to last week [19]. Spot Market - Domestic Price: As of December 25, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [25]. - External Price: As of December 25, the FOB price of urea in China was 390 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. - Basis: As of December 25, the urea basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to last week [33]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [36]. Industry - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of December 25, China's urea production was 1.3334 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period, showing a slight downward trend [39]. - Inventory: As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.26%; as of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 9.39% [40]. - Export: According to customs statistics, in November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [45]. Downstream - Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Start - up Rates: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from last week [48].