瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - The port methanol market continued to be strong this week, while the inland market remained weak. Inland enterprises had high inventories due to poor sales, and price cuts to reduce inventory were the mainstream operation [8]. - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. With increased market supply, port goods continued to flow into the inland, and downstream raw material inventories were at a high level, reducing procurement enthusiasm. Inland projects continued to operate stably, and inland enterprise inventories increased this week. In the short - term, with relatively abundant supply, the weak winter demand expectation was unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventories were expected to increase overall. Port inventories increased significantly this week, mainly in Jiangsu. Next week, the arrival volume of foreign vessels will still be high, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [8]. - The operating loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China decreased slightly, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry continued to decline this week. In the short term, the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy Suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - Market Review: The port methanol market was strong, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2090 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland market was weak, with prices in Ordos North Line ranging from 1870 - 1900 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2160 - 2200 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland inventories increased, and port inventories were expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry was expected to decline slightly [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.61% [12]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of December 26, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 14 [16]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided other than the topic. - Warehouse Receipts: As of December 26, there were 6748 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 41 from last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic Spot Prices: As of December 25, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 285 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Foreign Spot Prices: As of December 24, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 252 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 68 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34]. - Basis: As of December 25, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The NYMEX natural gas closed at 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42]. - Industry: As of December 25, China's methanol production was 2072175 tons, an increase of 16200 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80%. As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 40.40 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.28%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 19.36 million tons, a decrease of 2.68 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 141.25 million tons, an increase of 19.37 tons from the previous data. In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 141.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%; from January to November 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 1269.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60%. As of December 25, the methanol import profit was - 6.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.1 yuan/ton from last week [45][50][54]. - Downstream: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 88.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. As of December 26, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 991 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]. 4. Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.